Oscar Predictions.

A show of hands please: who thought it wasn't coming? Ok, well - pipe down; if you've noticed that my perennial list of predictions and commentaries as award season goes into full-overdrive has been absent, blame only the WGA (or rather, the far more culpable producers) for making this early blur of Globes, SAG's, and little gold men even more limp and pointless...or worse, empty. Still, the strike is ended and I've done most of my pre-Oscar viewing. As such, I present who I predict will win what of the Big Eight awards, and more importantly: who should.

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Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Joel & Ethan Coen are pretty much guaranteed another win here (it'll likely be their third or fourth of the evening) for No Country for Old Men but if the Academy waxes sentimental (or whatever the hell P.T. Anderson feels when he makes a movie) they could pull an upset by showering the love on Away from Her, Atonement, or There Will Be Blood.

Who Should Win: Christopher Hampton does admirably with Ian McEwan's devastating novel, scripting a film with almost exactly his same shard of heartbreak nestled in the center. But it's the movie stripped of nearly all sentiment that has me behind it: Mr. Anderson gives his early 20th-century schemers and crooks vicious dramatic oomph; what more could you ask?

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Diablo Cody is just a milimeter away from "shoe-in"...

Who Should Win: And rightly so; her Juno is a stunner: quick-witted but ultimately grounded in a revelatory modern compassion. For such a novice, her script has all the skill of a master.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: This is another category dominated by only one contender: Javier Bardem for his bone-chilling portrayal of a uniquely McCarthyian sociopath in Country. Far be it from the Academy to slow his winning streak (though, they do so love the geriatrics: a surprise win from Hal Holbrook, much like last year's victory for Alan Arkin, isn't out of the question).

Who Should Win: I'll admit it: I'm pre-disposed to Tom Wilkinson for his deftly graceful embodiment of a Champion of Sleaze seeing the light in Michael Clayton - seeing as how it was one of my favorite movies of the year - but such adoration doesn't make me blind. When Bardem picks up his Oscar, I'll cheer like the rest of 'em.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett faces a conundrum: she pulled away early from the starting gate as the clear favorite in the Supporting category for her acidically witty and frazzled Bob Dylan in I'm Not There; thus her reprisal of Elizabeth I got nil attention (though she still picked up a nod in Best Actress land). Now she'll have to duke it out with Tilda Swinton, as Clayton's nuerotic in-house counsel, for the prize. Who will emerge victorious? Lately the bets are on Swinton, but I'll still side with an old horse: my pick is Blanchett.

Who Should Win: I've long admired both Swinton and Blanchett and this year saw some of the best in their respective careers: the former all captivating collapse and insecurity; the latter all wounded genius. So, seeing as how I tend to wax generous in the week leading up to the big show, I'll compromise: either deserves the win.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, a famously "methodical" (that's putting it lightly) actor, is all the rage as the chief villain/hero of Blood. And history shows that monoliths such as he, having won nearly all the early-season awards, rarely stumble at the finish line.

Who Should Win: It's a year of easy picks for the Oscars - what with Cody, Bardem, and now Day-Lewis as both fan and critical favorites; and I count myself among both of the latter groups. I loved Johnny Depp in Tim Burton's sweepingly dark Sweeney Todd and my George Clooney-worship, for his lead in Clayton, knows no bounds. But I calls 'em how I sees 'em, and the craggy-voiced legend-in-the-making that is Daniel Day-Lewis clearly deserves the mother of all recognition for his startling performance as a man pulled inexorably into the dark tides of his own ambition.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Julie Christie, long absent from the nominee list, has been gathering steam ever since her film, Away from Her, premiered last fall. Lately though she's been facing stiff competition: both Marion Cotillard, as Edith Piaf, and Ellen Page, as the titular character in Juno, will give her a good run come Feb. 24th. Still, it's doubtful the Academy will overlook a comeback of such poignant scale; they'll go with Christie.

Who Should Win: Page was the central piece of a very good puzzle in Juno, and I'm sure Laura Linney - in The Savages - and Cate Blanchett - in her second go round as Elizabeth I - turned in reliably solid work, but for me it will always be Cotillard: a sprightly French actress who didn't just embody Piaf, that famously fiery sparrow-diva, she possessed her.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Again, the Coen brothers have always been on Oscar's radar, and they've proven that when they concoct just the right amount of box-office and rave reviews (see: 1996's Fargo), they'll come out big on award night. Still, they've never been recognized for their directing and this year it'll be just another thing that will be recognized with their bloody neo-Western Country. That means that industry standard Paul Thomas Anderson, always a bridesmaid and never a bride, will go home empty; as will upstarts Jason Reitman, Tony Gilroy, and Julian Schnabel.

Who Should Win: Gilroy deserves accolades for making Clayton such a silky surprise: seductive and articulate; and Reitman was the third part of that golden trifecta in Juno that reaped such big returns. The big fight though is between Anderson and Joel & Ethan Coen. Truly, all three dive right into their work; and to all three, their filmographies stand as testaments to the wonders of 21st-century writing-directing. But if a better man (or men) must be chosen, then it's the Coen's, for turning a 180 with their latest film - a stark and desolate landscape - and never hitting a false note.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Of the five - Juno, No Country for Old Men, Atonement, There WIll Be Blood, and Michael Clayton - each will reap something from the night's festivities...except Atonement; which is a shame because, though it has been positioned as a classic contender in a year that's anything but, the film has a true emotional wallop and its pedigree does good (or even great) work throughout. But enough of my laments; the only film that even comes close to nearing Country - a major player and winner in everything award-wise these last months - in hopes of a Best Picture win would be Juno and something tells me that the older voters of the Academy will favor the Cormac McCarthy adaptation over Diablo Cody's mad-cap dialogue.

Who Should Win: It's undeniable: 2007 was a dark year and its reflected in most of the nominees. Does that tempt me to favor the fifth, "lighter", film? Absolutely, but I also can't deny the that the four other films, while depressing and/or tragic, are also some great specimens. Thusly I choose There Will Be Blood as my favorite of the bunch. In P.T. Anderson's exploration of the trials of a devil-mogul, he employed some great actors (Day-Lewis, Paul Dano) in a thunderously unforgettable movie. The first viewing is like hypnotism tinged with dread; fascinating and inescapable.

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Well, there it is folks: who will and who should have been crowned victorious in the Kodak Theatre. Agree? Disagree? Let me hear why. Until then I'll be prepping my now-obligatory commentary on the events of the evening; something I'm sure my readers relish.

See you February 24th.